Despite a strong rebound in 2025, global PC shipments are expected to come under renewed pressure in 2026 as sharply rising memory prices and intensifying competition from AI data centers strain the market. According to analysts at Omdia, the rapid escalation in memory costs could significantly weigh on PC sales over the next year.
PC shipments grew by 9.2% year over year in 2025, with an even stronger 10.1% increase in the fourth quarter. However, Omdia cautions that this momentum is unlikely to be sustained. Escalating component costs—particularly memory—could reverse the recent growth trend as early as 2026.
Memory Prices Surge as AI Infrastructure Takes Priority
Omdia’s data shows that traditional PC memory prices rose by approximately 70% throughout 2025, prompting suppliers to warn customers of additional price hikes toward the end of the year. Even more concerning, analysts forecast a further 50% increase in memory prices in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
The primary driver behind this surge is a shift in production priorities. Memory manufacturers are increasingly allocating capacity to high-margin DRAM and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) used in AI servers and hyperscale data centers. As a result, the supply of conventional DDR memory for PCs has tightened, struggling to keep pace with demand.
At the same time, SSD prices climbed by roughly 40% in 2025, further pushing up overall system costs and squeezing OEM margins.
Higher PC Prices, Lower Shipment Volumes
Omdia expects the ongoing memory shortage to weigh heavily on PC shipments throughout 2026. PC manufacturers are likely to prioritize premium and high-end models, where higher margins can better absorb rising component costs. In contrast, mid-range and entry-level systems may ship with reduced RAM or storage configurations as OEMs attempt to manage constrained supply and rising expenses.
Notebook Market Particularly Exposed
Similar concerns were echoed by TrendForce, which in late 2025 forecast a 5.4% year-over-year decline in global notebook shipments for 2026. Notebooks accounted for approximately 79% of total PC shipments in 2025, making the segment especially vulnerable to sustained memory price inflation.
TrendForce also warned that if supply constraints intensify further, notebook shipments could decline by as much as 10.1%.
IDC Warns of Growing Market Volatility
IDC shares a similarly cautious outlook. While the firm has not released specific shipment forecasts for 2026, its analysts warn of increasing market volatility, lower average memory configurations, and continued upward pressure on prices as supply struggles to meet demand.
Outlook
As AI infrastructure absorbs an ever-larger share of global memory production, the traditional PC market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty. Unless supply conditions improve or pricing stabilizes, 2026 could mark a notable slowdown in PC shipments—driven by higher prices, constrained configurations, and weakening demand outside the premium segment.
